Kalshi Weather Edge blends three independent forecast models into a single ensemble probability, then compares it against live Kalshi prices — surfacing every mispriced temperature bin before settlement.
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From raw forecast data to a ranked list of trades — in seconds.
Three independent weather models (NWS, GFS, ICON) are fetched and blended into an ensemble forecast with a calibrated uncertainty estimate.
The ensemble distribution is integrated over each temperature bin to produce a probability for every YES/NO contract on Kalshi.
Each bin's forecast probability is subtracted from the Kalshi market price. Positive edge = the market is underpricing the outcome.
Sort by edge, click through to Kalshi, and place your trade. Pro users scan all cities at once to find the best opportunities.
A full suite of analysis tools purpose-built for Kalshi temperature markets.
Run a full edge analysis for any supported city. Compare ensemble weather forecasts against live Kalshi market prices to find mispriced bins.
Scan all 20 cities at once and surface the highest-EV trades ranked by absolute edge. One click to the Kalshi market page.
60-minute candlestick chart of any Kalshi weather market overlaid with forecast lines. Spot price drift before settlement.
Track how well NWS, GFS, and ICON performed historically per city. Reversed error chart shows which models run hot or cold.
Detect statistically unusual forecast spreads and model disagreements that historically precede large price moves.
Three independent sources (NWS, GFS, ICON) blended into a single ensemble mean with uncertainty estimates.
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Everything you need to trade weather markets with an edge.
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Join traders who use ensemble forecasting to identify mispriced Kalshi weather contracts before the market corrects.